(Pierre Lellouche, head of security studies at the French Institute of International Relations, and author of the Newsweek article, recently returned from a tour of Communist China's military installations. The full text of his article follows:)
The headquarters of the 196th Infantry Division of the Chinese (Communist) People's Liberation Army (PLA), north of Peking, contains a strange military museum. Next to the crude Chinese (Communist) knives and homemade grenades are more sophisticated captured foreign arms, from Japan, Nationalist China - even U.S. automatic rifles used in Korea. "(Red) China has always vanquished enemies armed with vastly superior weapons," said the division's political commissar. "The same will be true tomorrow if the Soviets attack us." Given the over whelming Soviet military superiority, however, that begins to sound like wishful thinking.
To be sure, the PLA, with its 4.5 million soldiers and 20 million militiamen, is a very big army indeed. But it is also an underdeveloped army, whose equipment is mainly Korean War vintage. The air force, composed largely of ancient MiG-17s and -19s, would stand little chance in combat against the MiG-23s or -25s flown by Russia or India. (Red) China's anti-aircraft capabilities remain extremely weak, with only a few old SA-2 ground-to-air missiles in the PLA's inventory. Most of the country's 12,000 tanks would be helpless in the face of Soviet T-64s and T-72s. In the absence of modern wire guided missiles, anti-tank defenses depend on artillery and 40-mm bazookas, whose shells would simply bounce off the sophisticated armor plates on most Soviet tanks. The picture is no brighter at sea. The Chinese (Communist) Navy's 130 surface ships and submarines are decades past their prime.
Failures: Chinese (Communist) medium-range nuclear forces-while far from negligible - also suffer from severe technological backwardness. The nation's only nuclear-powered sub still doesn't carry nuclear missiles. Every land-based rocket is equipped with a single large-yield nuclear warhead capable of reaching the Soviet Union. But the rockets are liquid fueled - making them extremely slow to use and in creasing their vulnerability to pre-emptive strikes. Although (Red) China is working on long-range intercontinental missiles, progress has been slower than expected. Some Western defense experts say the first Chinese (Communist) ICBM test last year was interrupted by technical failures after the second launch.
Interestingly enough, Chinese (Communist) defense experts readily admit these deficiencies, but stress that they are being corrected by the "four modernizations" program - agriculture, industry, defense, science and technology. In both the military and the civilian sectors, however, modernization has encountered two key obstacles: money and politics.
It is dangerously wrong for the West to rely on (Red) China's outgunned military to contain the Russians.
Modern equipment for (Red) China's 400 divisions will cost an estimated $400 billion, a sum clearly beyond Peking's financial reach. It only has $2 billion in hard-currency reserves now and already devotes roughly 10 percent of GNP to defense. The government was forced to slash military expenditures last year by 13 percent ($2 billion), a striking move by a country that claims the Soviet Union is planning World War III. And (Red) China has not gone ahead with planned weapons purchases in Western Europe, presumably for lack of funds. More importantly, Peking has yet to take up the Reagan Administration's offer to lift the U.S. arms embargo on (Red) China.
The second obstacle to modernization lies in the complex politics of transforming the PLA from a "revolutionary" army into a "professional" one. That implies redefining the role of the military in Chinese (Communist society. Historically, the PLA ha always been much more "Red" than professional, meaning its doctrine i heavily dominated by theories put forth by Mao Tse-tung's experiences in the 1940s. Even today, soldiers continue to spend a third of their time working "with the masses" and receiving political education from an elaborate network of political commissars positioned at each echelon of every unit.
On a wider scale, the PLA has always represented a major political force in (Red) China. Deng Xiaoping knows that whoever controls the army also controls the party, which explains why he was content to remain No.2 in the party hierarchy but chose to be come chairman of the vital military commission of the party's Central Committee. This preoccupation is warranted. While Chinese (Communist) military officers rarely criticize the Communist Party leadership openly, there are ample signs of dissatisfaction with the new regime. Many army cadres appointed during the ten-year Cultural Revolution now fear for their positions. Others remain faithful to Mao's line. They view the economic liberalization program as ideologically dangerous, dislike the recent decision to re-establish the rank system after sixteen years and resent the cuts in defense spending, Indeed the modernization plan puts the PLA in an awkward situation: on the one hand, the party leadership is ordering the military to forget about Maoist politics and become a modern professional army; at the same time, however the government is also denying the necessary funds.
Demography: Despite their military deficiencies, the Chinese (Communists) will continue to deter the U.S.S.R. For in the final analysis, (Red) China is protected by what an official in Peking rightly called its "two strategic weapons: geography and demography." It was probably best put by a regional commander in Shenyang - the headquarters for the rival border region with the U.S.S.R.: "If the Soviets attack, they will surely inflict a great deal of damage upon us, at least initially. However, at some point they will have to penetrate into (Red) China in order to conquer it. This is when we will be ready for them, for once the bear has entered (Red) China, it will never be able to leave."
At the global level, it is obvious that the West and (Red) China share a common interest in checking the growth of Soviet power. But it would be dangerously wrong for Western nations to expect the Chinese (Communists) to do anything more than simply protect themselves against Soviet aggression. Those in the West - particularly in the United States - who agitate so vigorously for the so-called (Red) China card should know that (Red) China does not have either the means or the desire to fight the West's battles on the Eastern front.
Red China roared over Tibet like evil hurricane
Distinguished American journalist Harrison E. Salisbury reports that the Chinese Communists disguised a portion of the city of Lhasa, Tibet, to deceive foreign diplomats.
A delegation of diplomats from Albania and Romania came to Lhasa for a visit during the "Cultural Revolution." The Chinese Communists roped off several blocks of the city. New, well-made Tibetan robes were issued to two or three hundred residents. Shops long since closed were opened and stocked, and the newly costumed Tibetans played the role of customers when the foreigners visited the shops. But the Tibetans were not allowed to touch the new saucepans, the canned goods, the bottles of barley beer. One man was jailed for attempting to sneak a package of cigarettes.
Salisbury, associate editor of the New York Times, was told about the make-believe setup by an older Tibetan.
Writing in the December issue of Reader's Digest, Salisbury says the forces unleashed by the "Cultural Revolution" roared across Tibet like an evil hurricane. "The world hell is too soft to describe what happened in those years."
"Today, the golden city of Lhasa, goal of explorers and mystics, is a dismal slum a cesspool of filth and rundown streets filled with beggars .. and hungry children," he writes.
Rural areas receive
7000 phones
More than 7,000 public telephones have been installed in remote areas since the Taiwan Provincial Government adopted its grass-roots-construction program two years ago.
The installation has apparently won the Taiwan Telecommunication Administration much appreciation from groups in the areas. Many groups presented either token flags or special silver medals to the Administration to symbolize their gratitude.
Jaycees
Choose ROC
The Republic of China's delegation to the Jaycee World Congress in Berlin returned to Taipei with two prizes.
Cheh Chin-yu, leader of the 38-member delegation, told reporters that Taipei was named host city for the 1983 Jaycee World Congress. In addition, Kao Cheng-chi of this country was elected vice president of Jaycee International (JCI) for 1982. He was one of 16 vice presidents of JCI chosen from all over the world and the only one from the East Asian region.
Dr. James Robinson named
Dr. Sun Yat-sen Professor
Georgetown University, Washington D.C. formally announced the appointment of Dr. Thomas W. Robinson as its Dr. Sun Yat-sen professor of China studies.
Dr. Robinson, is the second person to hold the Dr. Sun Yat-sen professorship at the Georgetown University, the first being Dr. Derk Bodde, who was in residence at Georgetown University during the spring 1981 semester.
The Dr. Sun Yat-sen professorship is part of an agreement between Georgetown University and National Chengchi University of the Republic of China.
Dr. James Soong named
1982 Eisenhower fellow
Dr. James Soong, director general of the Government Information Office, has been named winner of Eisenhower Fellowships of 1982, according to the Eisenhower Fellows Association in the Republic of China (EFA).
EFA, composed of Chinese Eisenhower Fellows, was formed in 1973 for the purpose of furthering the objective of the Eisenhower Exchange Fellowships, Inc. (EEF) to promote international understanding and goodwill.
It has also sponsored programs to invite American leaders to visit the Republic of China to strengthen people-to-people relations between the two countries.
Information Week
Stamp issued
The second week in December was proclaimed "Information Week" in the Republic of China. The week focused on the Republic of China's emerging data and word processing industry. The Directorate General of Posts, in support of the week, released a NTS2.00 commemorative stamp.
The stamp, drawn by Mr. Yen Ki-shih, employs the Information Week emblem as its main motif. Encircling the main motif are representations of groups or agencies that utilize information processing services.
Man's daily activities, if recorded, produce data. This data, when adequately processed, can be transformed into needed and useful information. Today any organization - whether a government institution, a private enterprise, a hospital, a school, a library, or even an ordinary family - can use some type of information processing service.
An information processing industry benefits the total industrial scene. Production levels increase; technology advances; and products become more competitive in international markets.
Orders for the stamps may be sent to: The Philatelic Department, Directorate General of Posts, Taipei 106, Taiwan, Republic of China.